By Rob Russell
Whilst we in South Africa ponder what new crisis will hit our major airports, the argument for new runways at major London airports has resurfaced again. It's going to be a huge battle between the Labour Government, on the one hand, and the other, the greens and local communities. But it’s a good time to push ahead with the expansion plans, especially as the green communities, worldwide, are on the back foot now that Donald Trump has again taken the USA out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and his vocal opposition to climate change, enjoying support from around the world.
Heathrow Airport's expansion plans may finally go ahead after almost 20 years of debates and delays.
Its potential revival comes after Chancellor Rachel Reeves indicated she would overrule environmental objections to allow London's biggest airport to carry out its plans to prioritise economic growth. The chancellor dropped a heavy hint at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that she intends to dismiss climate concerns and back Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton expansions as she said: "Growth is the number one mission of this government". Speaking in Parliament this week, she went on to say that It could increase potential GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 0.43% by 2050 according to a Frontier Economics study, 60% of that boost would go to areas outside London and the southeast, increasing trade opportunities. She added that business groups like the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) and the Chambers of Commerce (BCC), as well as trade unions "are clear - a third runway is badly needed".
The government will be accepting proposals until the summer and will then carry out a "full assessment" through the Airport National Policy Statement to "ensure a third runway is delivered in line with our legal, environmental and climate objectives".Asked directly if she would now put the runway, along with expansion at Gatwick and Luton, ahead of the UK's net zero commitments, Ms Reeves said: "I'm not going to comment on speculation, but what I would say is when the last government faced difficult decisions about whether to support infrastructure investment, the answer always seemed to be no.” She carried on to say, "We can't carry on like that, because if we do, we will miss out on crucial investment here into Britain. You've already seen several decisions, including on Stanstead and City Airport because we are determined to grow the economy."
The Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, has also weighed in on the argument, She told Sky News' Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips she "certainly would" back Heathrow's plans. "I've had to vote on this before, and I voted in support of the third runway," Ms Badenoch, whose North West Essex constituency includes London Stansted Airport said. "I know that it is very difficult for a lot of people when there's an airport in your area. I know, because I'm the MP for an airport as well. I have never opposed growth or development. What I want to do is make sure it's done in the right way."
Ms Badenoch added that if Heathrow thinks it can deliver a third runway that meets all the criteria it has set, then we should "do the right thing. We are talking about the future," she said, adding: "I think that we need to make sure that we deliver infrastructure. I voted for it before, so why would I change my mind?" She also faces opposition from within her own party, primarily the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride who accused Ms Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer and "their job-destroying budget" of being "the biggest barriers to growth". "What's worse, the anti-growth chancellor could not rule out coming back with yet more tax rises in March," he added. This is a Labour government run by politicians who do not understand business, he went on to say.
What has Heathrow said?
A spokesperson for Heathrow would not comment on reports about a third runway, but said "Growing the economy means adding capacity at the UK's hub airport which is full".
But what exactly does the airport want to do, and why has it proved so controversial?
The west London hub wants to build a third runway to the north-west of the existing two, which it says would enable an additional 260,000 flights per year and "allow Britain as a sovereign nation to compete more effectively for trade".
Its plans also include a new terminal building to the west of Terminal 5 and the eventual demolition of Terminal 3 to make way for a series of new satellite terminals and more public transport. Despite being given parliamentary approval in 2018, plans have been delayed by legal challenges and the COVID pandemic.
The major obstacle in the expansion plans is the scale and cost of constructing another runway at the West London site. In 2014 conservative estimates put the cost of this project at £ 14 billion. Taking into account inflation and cost increases, this price could well be double that by the time the new runway would be taken into service
According to The Times, airport bosses are looking at 'hiving off' the massive cost and asking ministers to allow them to charge an extra fee to airlines over decades. The Civil Aviation Authority currently sets a price cap for landing charges in five-year settlements, which are paid by airlines and passed on to passengers through higher fares. Last summer, the Civil Aviation Authority capped Heathrow's price per passenger at an estimated £23.73 this year and £23.71 in 2026. Currently, the regulatory settlement is five years, but Heathrow management is hoping to hive off the expansion project and get recovery over 30 years so that the impact on passengers is reduced.'
Gatwick and Luton airports are also hoping to expand in the near future
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has set a deadline of 27 February to decide on a second runway at Gatwick, which would effectively involve modifying an existing taxiway. The taxiway, at present, is parallel to the runway and doubles up as an emergency runway. Gatwick's majority owners, VINCI Airports, said the £2.2bn project would create 14,000 jobs and generate £1bn a year in economic benefits. But activist group “Communities Against Gatwick Noise and Emissions (CAGNE)” insisted they would legally challenge any second runway.
Meanwhile, Luton Airport, owned by the local council in Bedfordshire, has applied to build a new terminal and asked for permission to increase its passenger numbers to 32 million a year. It carried about 16.7 million in 2024.
These expansion plans are very necessary for the UK to remain competitive and the airports can serve as hubs and also encourage future economic growth in the UK. A case in point for their expansion is that at present the four largest airports around London serve a combined total of 410 destinations, throughout the world, whilst the new Istanbul airport alone, when it reaches its full capacity will service 350 destinations!
But the plans are not without their critics, within the Labour Party and out of it
Ed Miliband has said the expansion of Heathrow and other airports "won't go ahead" if they don't meet the UK's emissions targets - putting him on a potential collision course with Rachel Reeves. Appearing in front of the Commons Environmental Audit Committee, Mr Miliband - the cabinet minister responsible for pushing forward the government's net zero agenda - struck a different tone to the chancellor. He told MPs that any aviation expansion must take place within the UK's carbon budgets, including the 2050 target to reduce emissions by 100% compared with 1990 levels. Mr Miliband has been a vocal opponent of Heathrow expansion in the past.
Independent advisers on the government's Climate Change Committee (CC) have called for no net airport expansion without a proper national plan to curb emissions from the aviation sector and manage passenger capacity.
Environmental groups have campaigned against the expansion since the plans were announced and drawn up. Last week, Jenny Bates, transport campaigner at Friends of the Earth, called the proposal for another runway at Heathrow "hugely irresponsible amid a climate emergency", while Alethea Warrington, from climate charity Possible, said: "Approving airport expansions would be a catastrophic misstep for a government which claims to be a climate leader."
The expansion plans have also had critics across politics over the years, including from Labour's London mayor Sadiq Khan, based on the impact on air quality, noise and net-zero targets. Sadiq Khan said he remained opposed to a third runway. Boris Johnson was a long-standing opponent of the plans and promised to "lie down in front of those bulldozers and stop construction" when he was London mayor for the Conservatives - though he toned down his rhetoric once he became prime minister and could see the massive economic benefits for London and the UK as a whole.
Green Party MP Sian Berry said expanding airports "in the face of a climate emergency is the most irresponsible announcement from any government I have seen since the Liz Truss budget".
The stage is set for an intriguing battle. London does need more runways if it wants to stay in the forefront of air travel and it will bring much-needed growth to the UK, but the greens are determined to stop any expansion. One hopes common sense prevails and the plans do go ahead, albeit within climate change considerations.
Comments